I subscribe to a bunch of Crain's Chicago Business email alerts. Sometimes, I probably get 3 or 4 emails a day from them for all sorts of subjects ranging from "Things to Do This Weekend" to the Crain's Chicago Real Estate Daily News.
I just got one of those real estate news emails, and the lead story is "Index of Chicago-area home prices falls in November".
Because I have a huge appetite for news and reading in general, I've developed this refined sense for reading with an analytical mindset. Part of that skill comes from reading blogs where people comment on news stories, and part of it comes from talking to friends who read those same articles.
Anyway, back to the article.
One thing I've found, after talking to some writers I know, is that a news story often has to be boiled down to the simplest of ideas or concepts. This is often not a function of the intended audience's intellect or ability to draw good conclusions about a story. It's a function of real estate, so to speak. There is only so much room on a page after accounting for advertisements and standard layout features. When a news item needs a writeup, the editor might say, "Hey, Joe - I need 500 words about this real estate price study by noon." There is only so much you can do with 500 words.
The end result is that you can boil down Crain's real estate price story into this easy-to-eat-and-digest bit:
Chicago area prices fell 3.9% in November when compared to last year, but Chicago is doing far better than many other big cities. Lower interest rates may help perk up demand, but it's harder to get a loan.
But when I read the story, it doesn't go down so easy. Here are some questions I asked myself as I read:
Prices are down across the entire Chicago area? That doesn't mesh with what I've seen in some neighborhoods in Chicago.
They're talking about a housing Index. Is that the same thing as the economist's "Basket of Goods"? If the price of one good goes down 10% and another goes up 5%, the index will still say that prices are down 5%. But if I own the item that went up 5%, I guess it really doesn't matter as much to me that the other item went down.
I recently sold a property that cost $460,000 two years ago, and the exact same property just went for $480,000. According to my math, that's about a 2% per year gain. Does this mean I'm a great REALTOR? Or does this mean that this news story does not really give readers enough information to make an educated analysis about their specific situation or with regard to their specific property?
By the way, the answer to those last two questions is "Yes".
There is no doubt the market is much more challenging than it was in the past, but the complete story is always more complex and nuanced.
If you want to know what your property is worth, research the prices that comparable properties have recently sold for in your neighborhood. Don't just give in to the gloomy media narrative without doing your homework first.